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Is the U.S. Economy Headed for Another Recession?

美國經濟將再次陷入衰退?



There's been panic this month over tariffs, currency, and the 'inverted yield curve.' Here's what it really means.

本月美國出現了對關稅、匯率和“反向收益曲線”的恐慌情緒。這才是問題重點所在。

Is the U.S. economy headed for another recession? The short answer is no.
After a decade of aggressive market manipulation by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, most of the indicators we use to assess economic growth and job creation have been distorted beyond recognition. The good news is that the economy has recovered from the depression of 2008 despite the actions taken by the Fed, Congress, and Washington agencies. The bad news is that it may not survive the after-effects of some of these actions.

美國經濟將再次陷入衰退?簡而言之答案是不會。
十多年來美聯儲對市場的公然操縱使得我們用來評估經濟增長和就業情況的大多數指標被極度扭曲。好消息是在美聯儲、國會和華盛頓政府采取行動后,美國經濟已從2008年的大蕭條中復蘇。壞消息是美國經濟無法承受其中一些救市行動的副作用。



A second, related reason why the yield curve is negative is the dollar. Global investors have been hesitant to purchase Treasury securities, private bonds, and other assets in the U.S. out of fear that a strong dollar would wipe out their returns. Now with the dollar starting to weaken, large investors such as central banks and giant institutions such as Japan’s Norinchukin are back into the market, buying U.S. securities and driving down yields on Treasury bonds, and then selling the dollar foreign exchange risk to lock in safe returns.

其次,收益率曲線為負的相關因素是美元。全球投資者一直不愿購買美國國債、私人債券和其他資產,擔心美元走強會抹去他們的利潤。現在隨著美元開始走軟,美國央行等大型投資者和日本中央農林金庫等大型機構重返市場,買進美國證券壓低美國國債收益率,然后賣出美元外匯風險鎖定回報。

So the two chief reasons for an inverted yield curve—low or negative interest rates and a huge demand for safe assets—have nothing to do with the direction of the U.S. economy. Indeed, the economy continues to grow strongly, albeit at slower rates than from 2016 to 2018. Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, argues that we’re doing just fine:

因此收益率曲線反轉的兩個主要原因——低利率或負利率以及對安全資產的巨大需求與美國經濟走向無關。的確,盡管增速低于2016年至2018年,但中國經濟仍繼續強勁增長。First Trust Advisors首席經濟學家布賴恩?韋斯伯里認為美國做得很好:

The rate of growth in the service sector continued to decelerate in July, with the headline index falling to the lowest level in nearly three years. However, it still showed growth and we anticipate a re-acceleration in the service side of the economy in the second half of the year. It’s important to recognize that thirteen of eighteen service sub-sectors reported growth in July, while only five reported contraction. And, if survey respondent comments are any indication, direct impacts from the China tariff dispute remain minor, with only the construction and management/support services sectors claiming increased costs.

7月份美國服務業增速繼續放緩,整體指數降至近3年來最低水平。不過該數據仍顯示緩慢增長,預計下半年服務業將再次加速增長。重要的是要認識到在18個服務細分行業中,有13個在7月份實現了增長,而只有5個出現萎縮。此外受訪者意見表明與中國關稅爭端的直接影響仍然很小,只有建筑和管理/服務業運營成本上升。

The third reason for the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with the performance of the economy and everything to do with the dismal job that the FOMC has done managing monetary policy. Since 2008, the Fed has managed to inflate asset prices for stocks, bonds, and real estate, but has created serious problems along the way.
收益曲線反轉的第三個原因與經濟表現無關,而與美國聯邦公開市場委員會對貨幣政策的糟糕管理有關。自2008年以來美聯儲成功地推高了股票、債券和房地產資產價格,但同時也帶來了嚴重的問題。



The good news is that the U.S. economy is actually doing just fine and, if left to its own devices, will continue to outperform the rest of the world despite the threat of trade wars and other maladies. The one note of caution, however, is that the FOMC is truly lost when it comes to forming monetary policy and the narrative the markets desperately need in order to make decisions about investments and risk. Were it possible to address the members of the FOMC, the message would be: “stand down, do nothing.” The economy will thank you.

好消息是美國經濟實際上運行良好。如果任其自行其是,它將繼續超越世界其他地區。盡管美國也面臨貿易戰和其他頑疾的威脅。然而值得注意的一點是,聯邦公開市場委員會在制定貨幣政策以及為市場投資和風險決策闡述宏觀經濟情況這兩方面確實沒干好。如果有可能向聯邦公開市場委員會成員提出建議,那么最好是:“保持沉默,你們什么也不做。”“美國經濟會感謝你們的。、